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    China PMI Drops to Lowest in Almost 3 Years


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    Posts : 34
    Join date : 2011-08-10

    China PMI Drops to Lowest in Almost 3 Years

    Post  hurricanemaxi on Tue 01 Nov 2011, 5:16 pm

    A Chinese manufacturing index dropped to the lowest level since February 2009, bolstering the case for fiscal or monetary loosening to support the expansion of the world’s second-biggest economy.

    The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in September, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement today. That was lower than any of 16 economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey that had a median forecast of 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    An index of export orders contracted for the second time in three months as Europe’s failure to resolve its debt crisis dims the outlook for shipments to China’s biggest market. South Korea reported today the weakest export growth since 2009 and Taiwan’s government said yesterday that the island’s economy expanded by the least in two years.

    The PMI reading “is a reflection of slowing momentum in the economy” and exports may “slow sharply in coming months,” said Wang Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist at UBS AG. “Policy will ease more visibly in the first quarter of 2012.”

    A separate manufacturing index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 51 from 49.9. The surveys have different sample sizes and methodologies.

    Gauges of manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe are also due today. A U.S. factory index released by the Institute of Supply Management rose to 52 in October from 51.6 in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. In contrast, European services and manufacturing output may have shrunk at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, according to the preliminary reading of a survey by London-based Markit on Oct. 24.
    Wen ‘Fine Tuning’

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2 percent as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1 percent at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break. Shares in China rose last week on speculation that more easing is possible after the government offered tax breaks for smaller companies that have been hardest hit by lending curbs and slowing growth.

    Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that economic policies will be “fine-tuned” as needed. That fueled speculation the government may ease reserve requirements for smaller banks and add fiscal stimulus, putting growth ahead of inflation risks.

    “The weak PMI figure may prompt the government to loosen policies going forward such as a cut in reserve-requirement ratios for small banks and that’ll be positive for stocks,” Liu Li-Gang, head of Greater China Economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in an interview in Bloomberg’s Shanghai office. “China’s economy is poised for a soft landing in the fourth quarter rather than a hard landing.”
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